COLA 2026: Announcement Could Be Delayed by Shutdown
6 min read
The Social Security Administration (SSA) is scheduled to announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 15, 2025. This annual update affects over 70 million retirees, people with disabilities, and their families, and it’s one of the most closely watched events of the year.
But this fall, the announcement is at risk of being delayed. According to the Department of Labor’s recently released shutdown contingency plan (Sept. 26, 2025), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would suspend operations during a lapse in federal funding.
That matters because the BLS publishes the inflation data, known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), that SSA uses to calculate the COLA. If a shutdown occurs and BLS data can’t be released on time, the COLA announcement could be pushed back.
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Key Takeaways:
The 2026 COLA announcement is set for Oct. 15, but a government shutdown could delay it by freezing BLS inflation reporting.
Forecasts from the Senior Citizens League put the increase at about 2.7%, or roughly $50 more per month for the average retiree.
Even a healthy COLA may be partially offset by rising Medicare premiums and household costs.
Benefit payments themselves will continue, but the timing of the official adjustment—and the clarity it brings for millions of households—could be in jeopardy.
How is the COLA calculated?
The Cost of Living Adjustment (aka COLA) is based on the average Consumer Price Index for July, August, and September. September’s figure, normally released in mid-October, is the final piece needed to determine the exact adjustment. Without it, SSA cannot finalize or announce the increase.
Even if the announcement is delayed, benefit checks themselves would not stop. Payments continue regardless of shutdowns, since Social Security is funded through a permanent trust fund. The uncertainty lies in when beneficiaries will know their 2026 adjustment.
The COLA affects benefits in a big way — here's how.
What is the 2026 COLA prediction?
While the official number won’t be locked in until October (or later, if there's a shutdown), groups like the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) publish monthly forecasts based on inflation trends. As of their most recent update, TSCL projects a ~2.7% COLA for 2026. That’s a slight bump from earlier forecasts of 2.3%–2.5% and reflects stubborn inflation in key categories.
Here’s the trajectory of their predictions this year:
Early 2025: ~2.3%–2.4% forecast
May 2025 update: 2.5%
Latest COLA Watch: 2.7%
A 2.7% increase would translate into about $50 more per month for the average Social Security retiree benefit of roughly $1,850. But TSCL also warns that higher Medicare Part B premiums and medical costs may offset much of that raise.
What else could a shutdown affect?
The COLA announcement isn’t the only thing at stake if a shutdown occurs. The DOL’s plan spells out what continues and what stops:
Continues:
Unemployment Insurance payments, including disaster unemployment assistance
Compensation programs like Black Lung, Federal Employees’ Compensation, and Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation
Job Corps centers that house students
Emergency workplace investigations (mine accidents, child labor, fatalities)
Stops or slows:
Bureau of Labor Statistics economic data releases, including CPI and the monthly jobs report
Most labor policy, compliance, and outreach programs
Routine workplace inspections and grant awards
These other impacts won’t affect everyone directly, but the freeze on BLS data is the piece that could touch nearly every Social Security beneficiary. We can tell you more about how a shutdown affects benefits.