What Are the Odds of a Government Shutdown in 2025?

As the end of September approaches, the U.S. government is facing another funding deadline, and the possibility of a 2025 government shutdown is very real. What exactly does that mean? For millions of Americans, a shutdown could disrupt federal services, delay benefit processing, and create financial uncertainty.

Prediction markets, places where people put money on political outcomes, currently give the odds of a shutdown at more than 50%. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, but it does suggest that a shutdown is definitely something to keep an eye out for.

So, what’s driving this debate, and how could it affect your benefits? Let’s break it down step by step.

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What are the chances of a government shutdown?

As of Sept. 15, 2025, two of the biggest prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, are both showing a 54-55% chance that the government will shut down before the end of 2025. Basically, the odds are slightly more tilted towards a shutdown. 

These numbers move up and down daily as negotiations shift. Think of them like stock prices: they reflect trader sentiment based on the latest news, not a guaranteed outcome.

Important: Markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can give us a snapshot of what informed traders think might happen. But they’re not guarantees, they reflect sentiment, and they’re a tool, not a crystal ball — useful to gauge the mood, but not the final word.

Why is there a threat of a 2025 government shutdown? 

The September deadline is all about Congress approving new funding to keep federal agencies running. Here are the big sticking points:

• Healthcare Tax Credits: Democrats want to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire after 2025, while Republicans have pushed back. It’s especially contentious in the wake of the benefits-slashing H.R. 1 (aka the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”).

• Filibuster Rules: Even though Republicans control Congress and the White House, they still need some Democratic votes in the Senate. That means bipartisan cooperation is necessary.

• Political Climate: After earlier budget showdowns in March, Democrats say they’re less willing to compromise this time.

Put simply, the fight is less about whether the government should stay open, and more about what policies get attached to the funding bill.

What happens if the September 30 deadline passes without funding?

If Congress doesn’t pass either a full funding bill or a temporary “continuing resolution” (often called a CR) by Sept. 30, 2025, the government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1, 2025.

A continuing resolution would buy more time by extending current funding levels. But even a CR needs bipartisan support, which is not guaranteed.

How would a shutdown affect everyday Americans?

Shutdowns don’t mean everything stops, but they do affect millions of people:

• Federal Workers: Many would be furloughed (sent home without pay) while others, like air traffic controllers, would work temporarily without pay.

• Benefit Programs: Social Security and Medicare checks would still go out. But new applications and customer service lines could slow down or pause.

• Other Services: National parks often close, passports can take longer, and federal contractors may lose work.

MORE INFO: We go into a lot more detail about how government shutdowns affect benefits and regular payouts.

What should you do to prepare?

If the odds of a shutdown are sitting around 50/50, it’s wise to take a few steps now, just in case.

• Financial Planning: If you rely on benefits or government paychecks, make sure you have a small emergency cushion if possible.

• Stay Updated: Keep an eye on reliable news and official agency updates. BK will also track these developments for you.

• Speak Up: You can always contact your representatives to share concerns about how a shutdown might affect you.