As of Now Social Security May Only Pay Full Benefits Through 2034
6 min read
Will Social Security run out of money? The long-term future of Social Security is looking a little shakier, according to the latest government report. The Social Security Administration (SSA) now says its main trust fund will only be able to pay full benefits through 2034, one year earlier than expected.
That doesn’t mean your benefits are disappearing. But it does mean future cuts are possible unless lawmakers act soon to change things with Social Security.
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Key Takeaways:
The Social Security trust fund is projected to run short in 2034.
After that, only 81% of scheduled benefits could be paid.
Current recipients won’t see changes right away.
Disability benefits (DI) are fully funded through at least 2099.
Lawmakers have options — but action is needed soon to avoid future cuts.
What is the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report, and what does it say?
Each year, the SSA and Medicare boards release a report on the financial health of the programs. These reports look at how much money is coming in from taxes, how much is going out in benefits, and how long the programs can keep paying full benefits without policy/budgetary changes.
The combined Social Security trust fund (Old-Age/Survivors Insurance + Disability Insurance) will be depleted in 2034.
At that point, the SSA will only be able to pay about 81% of scheduled benefits from ongoing tax revenue.
The Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund is stable and fully funded through at least 2099.
What does this mean for current and future Social Security recipients?
If you’re already getting Social Security benefits, nothing changes right now. But in nine years, that could be a different story. If nothing changes by 2034, benefits could be cut by nearly 20% across the board. For example:
A $2,000 monthly check would be reduced to about $1,620.
A survivor receiving $1,200 per month would get $972 instead.
Keep in mind, this isn’t a guarantee that cuts will happen; it’s what would happen if Congress doesn’t act to alter the program’s funding.
Why is Social Security running out of money?
A few key trends are putting pressure on the system:
People are living longer, which means more years of benefits.
Birth rates are lower, so fewer workers are paying into the system.
Economic assumptions have changed, including how much income comes from wages (versus capital).
The recently passed Social Security Fairness Act increased benefits for some groups — good for fairness, but it also adds costs.
These trends mean Social Security is paying out more than it's bringing in, and drawing down its trust fund in the process.
What can be done to fix Social Security, and what’s already in motion?
Lawmakers have a few main levers they can pull to keep Social Security fully funded. Some proposals are already on the table, but nothing has passed yet. If Congress acts soon, these changes could close the funding gap without cutting benefits. But the longer they wait, the harder it gets, and the more likely across-the-board cuts will kick in. Here’s what’s being considered:
Lift the payroll tax cap
Right now, only the first $168,600 of income is taxed for Social Security. Bills like the Social Security Expansion Act (S.393) and the Medicare & Social Security Fair Share Act would make higher earners pay more by taxing income above $250,000 or $400,000. This change alone could fund the program for decades.
Raise the payroll tax rate
Workers and employers each pay 6.2% in Social Security tax. Some economists suggest gradually raising that rate to 6.7% each — just half a percentage more — to cover most of the funding gap. No bill is currently moving on this, but it’s a well-documented option in the Trustees’ report.
Increase the retirement age
While no formal bill has been introduced, some members of Congress have floated the idea of raising the full retirement age to 69. This would reduce how long benefits are paid, but it’s controversial and likely to face pushback, especially from older workers and labor advocates.
Adjust how COLA increases are calculated
The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is based on general inflation, but seniors spend differently than the average consumer. The Social Security Expansion Act would switch to the CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly), which would increase most COLAs slightly each year and better reflect retirees’ real expenses.
Create a new minimum benefit
The same Social Security Expansion Act would also ensure that no one who worked a full career ends up in poverty by establishing a higher minimum monthly benefit, especially helping low-wage workers and caregivers.
Should you still count on Social Security?
Yes, but with realistic expectations.
Social Security isn’t “going broke.” It will still collect payroll taxes and pay out benefits. The problem is that starting in 2034, it might not collect enough to pay full benefits unless changes are made.
If you’re decades away from retirement, it’s wise to treat Social Security as just one piece of your retirement plan, not the whole thing.